Sure Win
Is the Premier League Title Race Already Down to Two Teams?
After just 11 games, it seems like the Premier League title race might be narrowed down to two teams. Liverpool had an ideal weekend, securing a win over Aston Villa while Manchester City lost to Brighton, and Arsenal drew with Chelsea, leaving Liverpool five points clear of City and at least nine points ahead of the rest of the pack.
According to Opta’s predictions, Arsenal has only a 3.5% chance of winning the title, with Chelsea at a mere 0.2% and no other team predicted to have a chance. However, pundits are cautious. Former Arsenal forward Theo Walcott commented on MOTD2, “Liverpool will stumble at some point and face injury challenges like every other team.” Meanwhile, former Premier League striker Troy Deeney added, “Lose one more time and Arsenal might be out of it—they need to beat both Liverpool and City.”
Is Arsenal Already Out of the Race?
Arsenal fans had high hopes for this season, especially with Manchester City looking vulnerable, having lost four consecutive games across all competitions. However, Liverpool under new coach Arne Slot has exceeded expectations, achieving 28 points from a possible 33. This weekend marked Arsenal’s first nine-point gap from the top since the 2021-22 season, where they finished 24 points behind City.
Walcott noted, “Arsenal currently lacks goals, even though they aren’t conceding many. They’ve faced tougher competition so far, with six of last season’s top 10, and five of those away from home.” Key player Martin Odegaard returned against Chelsea, assisting Gabriel Martinelli’s goal, but Arsenal still has an uphill battle.
Arsenal legend Paul Merson echoed this sentiment, suggesting, “Arteta needs to close the gap to six points—if it stretches to 12, it’s over.” Historically, teams nine or more points behind after 11 games have not won the Premier League.
Liverpool: The Team to Beat?
Liverpool, now five points clear, is only the sixth team in Premier League history to hold such a lead after 11 games. Each of the previous five teams in this position won the title, including Liverpool in their 2019-20 season.
Liverpool’s midfielder Alexis Mac Allister admitted, “At the start of the season, I wouldn’t have said we were contenders, but now it seems like we are.” Opta now gives Liverpool a 58.3% chance of winning the title, up from just 5.1% before the season began. Walcott believes Liverpool’s prolific scoring is a significant advantage, saying, “Their goal difference compared to chasing teams is huge. They can afford to concede because they have the firepower to outscore.”
Jamie Redknapp praised Slot’s impact, noting on Sky Sports, “Slot is the big winner this weekend. The momentum is with Liverpool, and they face City soon, which could be a defining match.”
Can City Still Compete?
Manchester City has hit an unusual slump under manager Pep Guardiola, losing four games in a row for the first time in his coaching career. Despite bidding for a fifth consecutive title, Opta gives City just a 38% chance of winning, a sharp drop from their 82% chance at the start of the season. Guardiola hinted that after six league titles in seven years, maybe it’s time for another team to shine.
However, City is known for strong finishes and have overcome bigger deficits in past seasons, including last year when they trailed Arsenal by eight points in April. Redknapp noted, “This feels like a bit of a crisis for City. For the first time, they aren’t seen as title favorites.”
What About Chelsea and the Rest?
Chelsea, sitting in third place alongside Brighton and Nottingham Forest with 19 points, wasn’t expected to be in the title race this season. Manager Enzo Maresca, after a 1-1 draw with Arsenal, acknowledged that they are “ahead of schedule” in their progress. Still, Opta gives them a 0.0% chance of winning the title, as well as for Brighton and Forest, despite their impressive starts.
With Chelsea leading a closely packed group of teams from third to 13th, separated by just four points, the battle for Champions League places is fierce. The title race, however, seems to have taken a more decisive direction, with Liverpool and Manchester City emerging as the primary contenders. As the season progresses, the upcoming Liverpool-City clash on December 1 at Anfield may further clarify the race for the title.
